Not all markets fit into a neat category of market profiles. Some markets could exhibit a wider range of possible performance outcomes in 2025. Consider five such markets.
Columbus
Within the historically quiet Midwest, Columbus is a growing investor hotspot. But a recent surge of investment has brought with it spike in new supply as the market grows its existing supply base by nearly 4% in 2025, or some 8,200 units, according to data from RealPage Market Analytics. Though that’s not a huge ratio relative to some Sun Belt markets, it will be enough to test the depth of demand in the near term. Further, Columbus’s peak supply (in late 2025) is among the nation’s latest peak periods. It may be worth monitoring rent growth in the next few months here relative to supply levels.
Denver
Denver enters 2025 recording annual rent cuts of roughly 3.5%, seventh-deepest cuts among top 50 U.S. markets. Denver is also a few months out from its supply peak, which will see the addition of some 6.5% of existing inventory. The unknown here, however, is whether demand may finally be improving as the market recorded its strongest annual job growth reading (nearly 1% in December 2024) since October 2023.
Jacksonville
Jacksonville saw rent cuts approach 6% on a year-over-year basis in summer 2024, flirting with the nation’s weakest reading at that point in time. Recently, the market has shown signs of stabilization though, and with peak trailing 12-month supply in the rearview mirror, Jacksonville could begin to work its way up from the bottom of the list in 2025. Stubbornly low occupancy (remaining below 94%) will work against the market in 2025, though 2025 inventory growth (about 3%) comes in well below peak inventory growth seen in 3rd quarter 2024 of 6.5%.
Nashville
Massive supply would seemingly put Nashville’s in the same bucket as Austin, Charlotte, Phoenix, etc. But Nashville market supply effectively peaked at the end of 2024 with just shy of 13,000 units or 7% inventory growth. Further, supply in Nashville is heavily skewed towards the urban core. As a result, the market’s total supply figure may belie a story that instead splits between a sluggish, slow-to-recover urban core and a faster-than-expected rebound among suburban areas where supply levels drop sharply in 2025.
New York
New York has seen occupancy seriously improve from its early 2020s cycle low point, and has recently returned to 97%, which suggests that rent growth in the coming months may mirror other Gateway market peers. The unknown for New York through 2025, however, is just how much of an impact supply has in select neighborhoods. New York peak supply isn’t expected to arrive until early 2026 (with nearly 32,000 units) which should see a considerable increase from 2024 supply levels (about 19,000 units). Controlling for supply’s impact on like-for-like product (i.e., other institutional grade assets in the market) then there could be a wider range of performance outcomes here in 2025.
