The U.S. Has Entered its Third-Longest Period of Job Base Expansion on Record

U.S. job growth rebounded as expected in November, following work disruptions in October caused by severe weather and labor strikes. However, the unemployment rate ticked up slightly.

Employers added roughly 227,000 workers to payrolls in November 2024, according to a survey of businesses by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Those additions came in well above the 36,000 jobs gained in October which were impacted by work disruptions caused by severe weather in the Southeast and a major labor strike at Boeing. November’s job gains also came in above the 200,000 to 220,000 jobs expected by economists. The U.S. economy has now added jobs for 47 consecutive months, the third-longest period of job base expansion on record dating back to 1939.

Of note, the job counts for both September and October were revised up. Upward revisions to September 2024 data showed 32,000 more jobs were added than previously reported, up to 255,000 positions. The October 2024 job growth number was revised up by 24,000 jobs to a total of 36,000 positions. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 56,000 jobs higher than previously reported.

Job gains in November were higher than the monthly average of around 185,800 jobs added over the previous 12 months and came in well above pre-pandemic norms. From 2015 to 2019, the U.S. economy added an average of roughly 190,000 jobs each month.

On an annual basis, the nation gained roughly 2.27 million jobs as of November 2024. That was the second-weakest annual gain since March 2021 and registered below the pre-pandemic average of around 2.4 million jobs added annually from 2015 to 2019.

The U.S. economy has recovered all the net jobs lost during the COVID-19 pandemic. As of November, the nation had nearly 7 million more jobs (+4.6%) compared to the pre-pandemic employment level from February 2020.

Jobs by Industry

 Most of the major industry sectors gained jobs in November. The most notable job base expansions were in Education and Health Services (+79,000 jobs) and Leisure and Hospitality Services (+53,000 jobs). Notable job gains were also recorded in Government (+33,000 jobs), Professional and Business Services (+26,000 jobs), Manufacturing (+22,000 jobs) and Financial Activities (+17,000 jobs). Smaller gains were recorded in Construction (+10,000 jobs), Other Services (+8,000 jobs) and Mining and Logging (+2,000 jobs). On the other hand, steep job cuts were seen in Trade, Transportation and Utilities (-23,000 jobs). Essentially no change was recorded in the Information sector.

Most major industries have recovered all the jobs lost during the COVID-19 pandemic downturn. Education and Health Services has seen the best recovery, with the November 2024 job count coming in roughly 2.1 million positions ahead of February 2020 numbers, followed by Professional and Business Services (+1.52 million jobs). Also well ahead of pre-pandemic norms was Trade, Transportation and Utilities (+1.3 million jobs).

The Leisure and Hospitality Services sector, which was the hardest-hit industry during the pandemic, has recouped all the jobs lost during that downturn. As of November, that sector had 170,000 more jobs than in February 2020, but that translated to just a 1% increase in the job base.

The Mining and Logging and Other Services sectors have yet to recover all the jobs lost during the COVID-19 downturn. The Mining and Logging industry was 44,000 jobs below its February 2020 level, while Other Services remained 11,000 jobs in the hole as of November 2024. That put the November employment count in Other Services 0.2% below the pre-pandemic level, while the job base in Mining and Logging was 6.4% below the February 2020 level.

Unemployment

The unemployment rate (U3 or headline unemployment rate, which is seasonally adjusted, and is a survey of households) rose 10 basis points (bps) in November to 4.2% after registering at 4.1% during the previous two months. It’s worth noting that the unemployment rate is less subject to temporary distortions than payroll employment. The recent unemployment rate was slightly higher than the previous 12-month average of 4% and was above the 4.1% anticipated by economists. The rise in the unemployment rate came amid a labor force participation rate that declined 10 bps in November to 62.5%, as 193,000 people exited the labor force. 

The unemployment rate registered below 4% from February 2022 to April 2024, averaging 3.6% during that period. At the onset of the pandemic, the unemployment rate climbed to 14.8% in April 2020. Prior to the pandemic, the unemployment rate clocked in at 3.5% to 5.7% from 2015 to 2019, averaging 4.4% during that five-year period. Prior to 2023, the unemployment rate hadn’t registered below 3.5% since 1969.

The total number of unemployed persons in the U.S. registered at roughly 7.15 million in November, up from about 6.98 million in October.

The unemployment rate for adult men (20 years and over) was unchanged from October to November, remaining at 3.9%. The unemployment rate for adult women (20 years and older) rose 30 bps month-over-month to 3.9%. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for teenagers (16 to 19-year-olds) declined 60 bps, from 13.8% in October to 13.2% in November.

Average Hourly Earnings

Average hourly earnings among employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose $0.13 (+0.4%) from October to November. That monthly increase took average hourly earnings to $35.61 in November. On an annual basis, average hourly earnings were up $1.38, a 4% increase year-over-year. Overall wage growth continues to surpass rising prices, as the Consumer Price Index rose 2.6% annually in October. The Fed’s target for inflation is currently at 2%.

Wage growth over the past year was strong across most major industries. The largest increases in earnings from November 2023 to November 2024 were recorded among workers in Professional and Business Services (5.2%), Information (4.8%), Manufacturing (4.3%), Financial Activities (4.2%), Mining and Logging (4.2%) and Construction (4.1%). Smaller increases were among employees in Other Services (3%), Education and Health Services (3.3%), Trade, Transportation and Utilities (3.5%) and Leisure and Hospitality Services (3.9%).