New Apartment Supply in Several Small Markets to Rise in 2020

This year will see a three-decade record for new supply across the nation’s 150 largest apartment markets as more than 371,000 units are scheduled to deliver. Though large markets, such as Los Angeles, have gotten the spotlight for skyrocketing completions, many small markets also expect big bumps.

In seven of the nation’s 100 small apartment markets (roughly defined as having between 22,000 and 100,000 total existing units) new supply in 2020 is expected to increase by more than 1,000 units over 2019 volumes.

Of the seven smaller markets scheduled to see a spike in new supply in 2020, four are in Florida. As with much of Florida, these four markets have benefited from in-migration of new residents – particularly retirees – and necessitated varying levels of new construction after recent hurricanes.

The Palm Bay market, located off the eastern coast of Florida, has seen limited new supply during this economic cycle, but the 2,234 units scheduled to come online in 2020 is nearly twice the total amount of new supply received so far this cycle. This new stock will grow total inventory by 6.5% in 2020, and growth will be similar – with another 2,000 units scheduled to complete – in 2021.

Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL will see the completion of more than 3,000 units in 2020, more than double the deliveries from 2019. This year’s deliveries represent a 50% increase in total cycle supply. This market will grow total inventory 7% in 2020, and another 5.9% in 2021. Deltona-Daytona Beach – the only Central Florida market on this list – is set to see more than 1,700 units complete this year, about 1,000 units more than in 2019. Since 2010, the market has received only 1,700 new units, so oncoming supply will grow the total cycle new supply by about 75%. This market will see total inventory grow 5.2% in 2020 and another 4% in 2021. North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, on Florida’s west coast, is slated to receive about 3,000 units in 2020, roughly 1,000 more than delivered in 2019. This market will grow inventory 5.4% in 2020 and 4.2% in 2021.

Another hurricane-impacted market, Wilmington, NC, will see unprecedented new supply in 2020 with nearly 1,400 units scheduled to deliver. Though the North Carolina market has seen consistent new supply this cycle, it has never hit such a high annual inventory growth rate, which is anticipated at 6.2% in 2020.

Louisville has averaged about 1,500 new units annually for the last five years, but is set to double that figure in 2020. Louisville is one of the bigger small markets with about 88,000 existing units, making 3,000 new units in 2020 more manageable. Those new units would grow total inventory by 3.5%.

Richmond, which has just over 100,000 total units, is scheduled to add over 3,000 units in 2020, more than 1,200 units over 2019’s tally. New stock will grow total inventory by 3% in 2020 and by nearly as much in 2021.

Alternatively, only one of the nation’s 100 secondary markets is expected to see supply plunge by more than 1,000 units between 2019 and 2020. After getting more than 1,500 new units in 2019, Omaha will see only 436 new units complete in 2020. Though 2019’s supply could largely be credited to one 732-unit property, the year’s total volume is still roughly in line with Omaha’s five-year average of 1,400 units.