New Census Boundaries Change Employment Totals

The New York metro division’s annual job gain total for January fell from 150,500 jobs to 119,300 jobs in February’s data release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Why the big change?

The Office of Management and Budget changes the geographic delineations of the Census’ Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) periodically and those changes sometimes are significant.

Based on new boundaries, the renamed New York-Jersey City-White Plains metro division of the New York-Newark-Jersey City CBSA lost more than one million employees when the BLS adopted these new boundaries in March.

However, these employees did not disappear. They are now included in a new metro division within the New York CBSA called Lakewood-New Brunswick, NJ that consists of the New Jersey counties of Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean and Somerset, the first three of which were previously in the old New York-White Plains division.

Note: These New Jersey counties have always been included in RealPage’s definition of the Newark apartment market (along with Bergen, Passaic and Hudson counties, et al.).

Despite the lower employment base, the New York metro division still led the country for job gains once again. For the year-ending February, New York added 94,400 jobs, down from the January total as employment growth continues to slow across the country.

Eight of last month’s top 10 markets returned to the list in February with New York, Houston and Dallas remaining in order. Houston’s annual gain slowed from January’s, but Dallas improved slightly.

Orlando and Philadelphia returned to the #4 and #5 spots but changed places from last month with close to 30,000 jobs added apiece, while Chicago moved up two spots, adding almost 26,000 jobs for the year.

Charlotte jumped onto this month’s top 10 list, and like Miami and Washington, DC, added close to 24,000 jobs through February. San Antonio rounded out the top 10, adding 21,300 jobs, barely displacing Atlanta to the #11 spot by 100 jobs.

Together, the top 10 markets added 351,800 jobs in the year-ending February, almost 69,000 less than the same 10 markets last February (down 16.3%). Additionally, the next 10 markets (#11-#20) of RealPage’s top job gain markets saw their total gains decrease 14.7% to 164,700 new jobs.

For the first time in eight months, no markets exceeded 100,000 jobs gained for the year and only New York gained between 50,000 and 99,999 jobs. Thirty-two of our top 150 markets reported annual job losses for the year, 12 more than last month. In addition to the California markets mentioned last month like the Bay Area and Los Angeles-Anaheim, job losses are creeping into some Florida markets along the Gulf and spreading to markets such as Baltimore, Memphis, Phoenix, Denver, Las Vegas and Boston.

Job Growth

Unlike the top job gain markets, which tend to be large in population and employment, smaller markets usually dominate the top markets for annual percentage change in employment. As we typically see, state capitals, college towns and resort cities dominate this list. Nine of January’s top markets for job change returned in February.

Although changing places, Boise, ID and College Station, TX returned to the top two spots for job change in February, with a solid 3.3% in Boise and 2.8% growth in College Station. Both were down from 30 to 170 basis points from last month. Charleston, SC, Fresno, CA and Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL tied at #3 with 2.7% annual employment growth in February.

Salem, OR and Myrtle Beach, SC tied for #6, just behind the #3 markets with 2.6% job change. The #8 market – Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR – is primarily known as a college town but also includes Northwest Arkansas’ largest corporate employer Walmart and its associated vendors. Salinas, CA and Huntsville, AL round out the top 10 with growth of just over 2%.

Outside of the top 10 growth markets, Raleigh/Durham, Charlotte, San Antonio, Miami and Orlando had employment growth rates of between 1.7% and 2%. Including the top 10, there were 49 total markets exceeding the national not seasonally adjusted growth rate of 1.3%, which was 11 less than last month.

This post is part of a series by RealPage Senior Real Estate Economist Chuck Ehmann analyzing employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For more on this data, read previous posts on Job Growth.