Episode 21: Can economic resilience continue?
- Inflation is easing. The Consumer Price Index climbed by 3.1% in the year-ending January, mainly driven by shelter costs.
- Recent months have shown a reduction in rent growth. Given the roughly one-year delay between rent changes and their impact on shelter inflation, expect more softening of inflationary pressures in the near term.
- December's job landscape remained robust, and stable across states. This stability highlights a job market that is navigating a period of careful adjustment.
- Initial unemployment claims dropped to 212,000 for the week ending February 10, further highlighting strength in the U.S. job market.
- January's building permits slightly declined from December but showed a year-over-year improvement.
- Housing starts fell 14.8% from December, signaling potential shifts in construction activity.
- Mortgage applications fell 10.6% in the week-ending February 16, reflecting sensitivity to interest rate movements and inflationary concerns.
- No recession is in the forecast, but caution is advised for the subdued growth ahead.
For more information on the state of the U.S. Economy, including forecasts, watch all the episodes of the Economy Express series.