Episode 16: Are there cautionary signals as we near the end of 2023?
- Residential building permits issued in October were slightly higher than September but down 4.4% year-over-year, according to the seasonally adjusted rates from the U.S. Census Bureau.
- Indicating a cooling housing market, existing home sales declined across most geographic regions, with stability only in the Midwest.
- Single-family home prices continued to grow in September, with 15 out of 20 major markets reporting month-over-month increases, showcasing sustained demand.
- Sales of single-family homes saw a significant increase in the year-ending October, with a median national sales price of around $409,000.
- The U.S. Leading Economic Index for October decreased by 0.8%, signaling potential recessionary trends like declining consumer expectations and tighter credit conditions.
- The Consumer Confidence Index improved in November, but the Expectations Index remains below the level historically associated with a recession. Consumers expressed concerns about rising prices and high interest rates.
- The second GDP estimate for 3rd quarter 2023 shows a robust annual increase of 5.2%, driven by consumer spending, private inventory investment and positive revisions in nonresidential fixed investment and government spending.
For more information on the state of the U.S. Economy, including forecasts, watch all the episodes of the Economy Express series.