Multifamily Starts Appear to Jump in December
Compared to November, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for multifamily starts surged 58.9% in December to 418,000 units, according to the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
However, looking at the starts data that is not seasonally adjusted, 2024’s total for multifamily starts of 336,600 units is down very slightly from the 12-month total in November (-0.8%).
Comparing annual changes, seasonally adjusted starts are down 11.3% from 2023, while the unadjusted total is 26.6% less than 2023 starts.
When viewed together, the annualized seasonally adjusted total and the 12-month moving not seasonally adjusted annual total for multifamily starts show the wild volatility of the seasonally adjusted figures.
We made this comparison last month for multifamily permitting volatility as well, however, December’s SAAR for multifamily permitting of 437,000 units (down 5.8% for the month and 5.4% for the year) is very close to the 2024 total for unadjusted permits of 435,600 units.
December’s SAAR for single-family starts of 1.05 million homes was up 3.3% from November but down 2.6% for the year. Similarly, permitting increased 1.6% from last month to 992,000 homes, down 2.5% from 2023. The SAARs for both experienced the same volatility as is seen on the multifamily side.
The SAAR for completions was down from last December by 7.4% for single-family homes (to 948,000 units) but up 9.4% for multifamily (to 570,000 units). Continuing to reflect the apparent slowing in residential construction, there were 21.5% fewer multifamily units under construction than one year ago (773,000 units) and single-family units under construction were down 5.3% at 641,000 units.
Compared to one year ago, the annual rate for multifamily permitting increased moderately in the Northeast region (up 11.3% to 72,000 units) and Midwest region (up 19.1% to 77,000 units). Permitting declined for the year in the South (down 16.5% to 202,000 units) and West (down 5.1% to 88,000 units). Compared to the previous month, permitting was down in all but the Northeast Census region.
Annualized multifamily starts increased in the Northeast region (up 32.7% to 85,000 units) and South region (up 4.1% to 228,000 units) but were down in the Midwest (down -26.7% to 52,000 units) and West (down -55.1% to 52,000 units). Compared to November’s SAAR, starts were also up in the South, Midwest and Northeast, and down in the West.
