Job Revisions Indicate Softer Economy as Metro Job Gains Slow
The U.S. economy did not add nearly as many jobs as originally reported over recent months, indicating that the economy might be softer than previously thought.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised its national seasonally adjusted employment figures downward, indicating that employment levels were lower than originally estimated. Moderate revisions to metro-level unadjusted employment data also showed the pace of employment growth slowing.
While the New York-White Plains metro division once again led the nation in employment gains, its annual total through August of 139,000 new jobs was about 20,000 fewer positions than July’s 12-month total gain. Nine of July’s top 10 job gain markets returned to August’s list with the first eight remaining in order, but the sum of jobs gained for the top 10 was down -2.3% from last month.
Houston returned at #2 with a gain of 80,500 jobs through August, up 13,700 jobs from July’s revised total, but down almost 19,000 jobs from last year’s gain. Los Angeles again followed Houston at #3, gaining 78,100 jobs for the year, close to July’s figure but a change of +107,400 jobs after last August’s job losses.
Philadelphia remained at #4 with a 60,700-job gain, down, 6,800 jobs from last month, while Phoenix (at #5) gained 54,600 jobs in the year-ending August, down 4,400 jobs from July. Tied at #6, Atlanta and Las Vegas gained 41,100 jobs for the year each. Atlanta’s total was down 5,600 jobs from July while Las Vegas was down only 200 jobs.
Dallas returned to the #8 spot with 37,300 jobs gained for the year, half of its year-ago total but up 2,300 jobs from July’s downwardly revised total. St. Louis moved up onto the top job gain market list at #9 with 36,600 jobs gained, up 2,700 jobs from last month and 17,500 more jobs than last August. Miami moved down one spot to #10, gaining 35,800 jobs for the year, little changed from last month or one year ago.
As mentioned, the total number of jobs gained for the year-ending August for the top 10 markets (604,800 jobs) was down 14,400 jobs or 2.3% from last month’s collective total. However, the next 10 markets (#11-#20) saw their combined annual jobs gains increase by about 7,600 jobs.
Once again, only New York exceeded 100,000 jobs gained for the year but four markets gained between 50,000 and 99,999 jobs, one less than last month. Twelve of our top 150 markets reported annual job losses for the year, four more than last month. Major markets reporting annual job losses include Chicago, Memphis, Denver and Milwaukee.
Like annual job gains, the annual percentage change in employment saw some slowing as well with six of the top 10 markets decreasing their employment growth rates from July and one remaining unchanged. Eight of last month’s top employment growth markets returned in August and several changed places. Smaller employment markets are more susceptible to fluctuations in growth rates.
Champaign-Urbana, IL moved into the #1 growth rate spot with 4.7% employment change but that is considerably less than last month’s #1 growth rate of 6% (College Station, TX). Charleston, SC came in at #2 with 4.3% growth, down 70 basis points (bps) from last month. College Station dropped to #3 with 4% growth, down 200 bps from July.
Tallahassee, FL and Stockton-Lodi, CA tied for #4 with 3.8% employment growth and both were up from July by 80 bps to 100 bps, respectively. Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL and Las Vegas tied for #6 with 3.7% growth in August, but Naples fell 50 bps and Las Vegas was unchanged for the month.
Boise, ID fell two spots to #8 this month with 3.6% change in employment, down 20 bps from July, while Lincoln, NE moved up one spot to #9 with 3.4% growth. The college town of Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO rounded out the top 10 with 3.1% job growth, down 60 bps from last month.
The top 10 employment growth markets continue to reflect areas with concentrations in tourism (Las Vegas, Charleston and Naples), state capitals (Lincoln, Tallahassee and Boise) and/or major universities (College Station, Champaign-Urbana and Fayetteville).
Compared to last year, only one market had a lower job growth rate currently and nine had higher rates. They ranged from an improvement of 360 bps in Stockton to a decrease of 30 bps in Charleston.
Outside of the top growth markets, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Springfield, MA and Allentown, PA saw job growth rates increase by 200 bps or more from last year. Meanwhile, Salisbury, MD, Midland/Odessa and Sioux Falls, SD fell by at least 300 bps from last year’s job growth.
As mentioned, major markets with employment declines are Milwaukee, Memphis, Denver, and Chicago. Sub-0.5% growth major markets include Baltimore, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Portland. OR, San Francisco, Columbus, OH, Washington, DC and Detroit. Sub-1.0% growth major markets include Cleveland, San Jose, San Diego, Nashville, and Cincinnati. Eighty-two markets had annual job growth rates above the not seasonally adjusted national average of 1.5%, Four less than in July.
